If you know, you know.
From big-time leaps (Austin, Cincinnati, Montréal & Dallas) to borderline freefalls (Colorado, Seattle, Sporting KC & New England), more than a quarter of MLS's teams either rose or dropped at least eight spots in their respective conferences between the 2021 and 2022 seasons – a stat that will surprise few longtime fans.
Parity, like late goals and gorgeous tifos, is a defining element of MLS, and, so far, 2023 has lived up to that reputation. So break out your laminators: we’re highlighting a handful of teams who wasted no time outperforming preseason expectations over MLS is Back weekend.
Let's examine how likely these teams are to replicate their strong performances in upcoming matches. We'll use a scale of 1 (least likely) to 5 (most likely).
- Last match: 3-2 win at Austin
- Next match: March 4 vs. Charlotte (8:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass)
- Performance repeatability: 3 out of 5
St. Louis CITY's historic victory benefited from several memorable moments:
- Tim Parker's opening header: third-ever MLS goal in a 218-match MLS career.
- Jared Stroud capitalized on an accidental backpass assist from Austin's Kipp Keller.
- João Klauss: game-winner thanks to fleet-footed dribbling skills on the fast break.
Conventional wisdom says St. Louis got too many breaks – not the least of which was Austin center back Julio Cascante requiring an injury sub in the 11th minute – to run the magic back in Matchday 2. That's even as CITYPARK is introduced to the league, with Bradley Carnell's team playing before a special atmosphere.
But teams that press as energetically as St. Louis tend to create self-serving chaos, which is often mistaken for luck. Charlotte FC will have to be extra vigilant in hostile territory to avoid that trap.
- Last match: 3-2 win vs. Toronto
- Next match: March 4 at Columbus (7:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass)
- Performance repeatability: 2 out of 5
D.C. United similarly benefited from their opponent suffering a key early injury, with Toronto winger Lorenzo Insigne, the highest-paid player in MLS, exiting in just the 34th minute (leg). D.C. also got key contributions from at least one unlikely source: 21-year-old homegrown Ted Ku-Dipietro, who led the Black-and-Red's stoppage-time comeback with a game-tying assist and a game-winning goal in just his 11th-ever match for the club.
But D.C.’s low repeatability score is not an indictment on Ku-Dipietro, who rightfully earned a place on the Team of the Matchday presented by Audi. It's more of a close look at how they still lost the expected goals (xG) battle 2.29 to 0.84 while at home facing one of the oldest teams in the league (i.e. vulnerable to the counterattack and transitions).
In Columbus, D.C. visit a club that's looking for a strong Lower.com Field debut under new coach Wilfried Nancy, a 2022 Sigi Schmid MLS Coach of the Year runner-up. They're also burning for a bounceback after sustaining a 4-1 beatdown to conference rival Philadelphia Union, having conceded twice on penalties from fluke handballs in the box.
That’s a lot for D.C.'s new-look group to overcome.
- Last match: 2-0 win vs. Montréal
- Next match: March 4 vs. Philadelphia (7:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass)
- Performance repeatability: 2 out of 5
The good news for Inter Miami is they have another home game. The bad news is it’s against Philadelphia, arguably the league's top team.
Take nothing away from the Herons, whose 2-0 home victory over CF Montréal was likely the most complete performance from any team on this list. Yes, goalkeeper Drake Callender made six saves (1.55 goals-prevented as per TruMedia via StatsPerform), but Miami’s 2.91 xG was the third-highest of any team that played Matchday 1.
The problem is they’re running into the Union's buzzsaw-like form. Philadelphia lost only five road games last season and may have gotten even deeper. Compared to the largely-overhauled Montréal team that Miami beat on Saturday, the Union are a different beast, having been a model of consistency and cohesion over the last few years.
Also: Miami will likely again be without DP striker Leo Campana, who’s being evaluated week-to-week with a calf injury. Without him, they'll be hoping the Josef Martinez era can soon result in more goals.
- Last match: 2-1 win at Vancouver
- Next match: March 4 at Seattle (10:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass)
- Performance repeatability: 2 out of 5
RSL have an uncanny knack for getting results in regular-season openers. Like, really uncanny. They haven’t lost on Matchday 1 for the last 14 years. That’s longer than nearly half of MLS's 29 teams have been in the league.
Despite not spending on stars like some other Western Conference sides, the club gets tremendous buy-in to head coach Pablo Mastroeni's system. They've also benefitted by keeping much of their core intact from last year (their major offseason signing, club-record transfer and winger Andrés Gómez, started on the bench against Vancouver).
But visiting Seattle at Lumen Field should be a far tougher test than the Whitecaps provided at BC Place last Saturday. If RSL hope to become one of the Western Conference’s elite, now's a great time to make a statement.
- Last match: 2-1 loss at Cincinnati
- Next match: March 4 at New England (7:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass)
- Performance repeatability: 5 out of 5
Ok, hear me out: Yes, the Dynamo lost last week at Cincinnati, but they played on the front foot against a possible MLS Cup contender. Houston and new head coach Ben Olsen (D.C. United’s manager from 2010-20) have both earned reputations for defensive, pragmatic approaches at times, yet the Dynamo dominated possession and outshot their opponent 19-14.
Even in the face of a disappointing result, the Dynamo will likely keep playing attack-minded soccer. And why shouldn't they? With a starting XI that’s been revamped over the last two years, now’s as good a time as ever to switch up their identity.
One close loss to a heavy favorite in Matchday 1 shouldn’t be enough to change Houston's new proactive way of playing.
- Last match: 1-0 win at Dallas
- Next match: March 11 vs. New York (8:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass)
- Performance repeatability: 4 out of 5
Turns out Minnesota didn't need Emanuel Reynoso after all. By beating a full-strength FC Dallas (last year’s No. 3 seed in the West) without their star No. 10 (currently suspended without pay by Major League Soccer for failure to report to preseason camp), the Loons put out a performance that may have rivaled St. Louis' for shock value.
To understand the depth of the Reynoso loss, one must look past his 21 goal contributions last year (seven more than any other MNUFC player) to his team-leading 62.2 touches per 90. There's arguably no more productive or essential playmaker in the league.
But defense is the name of the game right now for Minnesota, who held a potent Dallas attack to just 0.92 xG in Matchday 1. If new center back Miguel Tapias can further gel with veteran Michael Boxall, there’s no reason to believe they can’t get a home shutout against the Red Bulls. They'll just need to wait for Matchday 3 to prove it, getting the weekend's lone bye.
